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Alex Smart |
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| Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 30, 2023 Yankees vs Mariners |
Yankees +135 at Ace |
Won $135 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Yankees left-hander Nestor Cortes (4-2, 5.30 ERA) is scheduled to start Tuesday against Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert (3-2, 3.60). My power rankings suggest the Yanks have the edge here. Note:Gilbert is 1-1 with a 7.16 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees. GILBERT is 2-8 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League West.Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. Mariners are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. American League East. SEATTLE is 12-19 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Yankees are 35-16 in the last 51 meetings.Yankees are 36-16 in the last 52 meetings in Seattle. MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (SEATTLE) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after allowing 10 runs or more are 11-25 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Yankees to win |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 30, 2023 Braves vs A's |
Braves -1½ -145 at circa |
Lost $145.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The Braves behind top tier pitcher Elder (3-0, 2.01 ERA) look like viable bets here tonight on the run-line vs a downtrodden As side. The right-hander's ERA ranks third among all qualified major league pitchers. Oakland ended an 11-game losing streak with a 7-2 victory on Monday, giving the A's just their 11th win this season and sixth at home. Im betting on them having immediate regression here today and for the Braves to be primed for a big win in redemption mode. Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 inter-league road games vs. a team with a losing record. Braves are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Oakland.OAKLAND is 1-19 SU vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with the average run per game diff clicking in at +4 which easily qualifies on this run line offering.OAKLAND is 8-41 SU vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3.7. Play on Atlanta Braves -1.5 to win |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 30, 2023 Reds vs Red Sox |
Reds +175 at Ace |
Won $175 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The Reds are expected to start right-hander Ben Lively (2-2, 2.65 ERA) on Tuesday night . It must be noted that the Bosox are below .500 vs ( 15-19 )against right-handed starters this season. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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WNBA | May 30, 2023 Sky vs Dream |
UNDER 161½ -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play on the UNDER |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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WNBA | May 30, 2023 Fever vs Sun |
Fever +13 -110 at circa |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 27 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play on the Fever to cover |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 30, 2023 Brewers vs Blue Jays |
Brewers +135 at Mirage |
Lost $100.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Jays starter Kikuchi is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his past three starts. He started this season off fast but now he is fade material in his current form. KIKUCHI is 3-8 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Recor Meanwhile, the Brewers are expected to start right-hander Adrian Houser (1-0, 2.25) who according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well vs a Jays side that is 4-10 L/14 overall. It must be noted Houser has pitched much better against right handed hitters than southpaw batters in his career, and considering the amount of righty hitting stars in the Jays lineup that is a good omen for us backing the Brewers on value line in this matchup. MILWAUKEE is 19-6 against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 28-13 against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. COUNSELL is 25-13 against the money line against AL East opponents as the manager of MILWAUKEE. MLBRoad underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts are 26-13 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to win |
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| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 31, 2023 Rays vs Cubs |
Rays -128 at circa |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Cubs starter Steele started fast this season in top form but has regressed lately going 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his last four trips to the hill. Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter like Steele. Rays are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a left-handed starter. Meanwhile, the CHICAGO CUBS are 14-24 against the money line against right-handed starters like Eflin this season.TAMPA BAY is 35-12 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Cubs are 2-7 in their last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 3 of a seriesEFLIN is 2-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.326. STEELE is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 13.48 and a WHIP of 2.247. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) are 15-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate. Play on the Tampa Bay Rays to win |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 31, 2023 Rangers vs Tigers |
Tigers +125 at Ace |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Texas starter Dunning has pitched well this season so far but is do for regression. Note: DUNNING is 0-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 5.78 and a WHIP of 1.125.DUNNING is 2-12 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 2-14 against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 1-10 against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 0-7 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Advantage Motown. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA 4.50 or worse), with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 20% are 25-9 L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play on Detroit Tigers to win |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 22 years. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). |
