Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Los Angeles Rams -10.5

I don't normally lay double-digits in the NFL.  But I'm willing to Sunday with the Los Angeles Rams over the New York Giants for a number of reasons.  For starters, the Rams come in on extra rest after beating the Seahawks 26-17 Thursday.  They will be the fresher, more prepared team.

That's especially the case with all the injuries the Giants are dealing with right now.  RB Saquon Barkley and WR Kenny Golloday are out.  QB Daniel Jones, WR Sterling Shepard, WR Darius Slayton, WR Kedarius Toney and S Jabril Peppers are all questionable.  In all, they have 18 players out and another 6 questionable.  They are a mash unit right now.

The Giants are coming off a 20-44 road loss to the Dallas Cowboys in which they gave up 515 total yards.  They are now giving up 409 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  The Rams can pretty much name the score behind an offense that is averaging 28.2 points per game, 408.2 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.

The Rams are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 27 or more points per game.  Los Angeles is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 vs. NFC opponents.  New York is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Giants are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games as home underdogs.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

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20* Cowboys/Patriots Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New England +4

It's time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Cowboys.  They are the only remaining unbeaten team against the spread at 5-0 ATS this season.  They have won three straight home games against mediocre teams coming in.

The Cowboys haven't fared as well on the road.  They were fortunate to beat the Chargers 20-17 as the refs basically handed them that victory.  And they lost to the Bucs on the road in the opener despite forcing four turnovers.  And their turnover and injury luck has been unbelievable this year.  Players on opposing teams keep going down mid-game, and they have already forced 12 turnovers and at least two turnovers in every game, which is unsustainable.

The Patriots are just 2-3 this season and thus it's time to 'buy low' on them.  Two of their three losses came by a combined 3 points.  The other was a misleading 13-28 loss to the Saints in which they were -3 in turnovers and outgained the Saints by 48 yards.  Keep in mind they were last seen at home nearly upsetting the defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs, hitting the upright on a potential game-winning field goal in a 17-19 loss.

Dallas is only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.  They have an elite offense at 6.7 yards per play, but a terrible defense giving up 6.5 yards per play.  To compare, the Patriots have an elite defense in giving up 5.3 yards per play.  And Mac Jones is primed to have one of his best games of the season against this Dallas defense.

Bill Belichick is 14-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of New England.  The Patriots are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs of 7 points or fewer.  The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road favorites.  New England is 39-19-3 ATS in its last 61 games as an underdog overall.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +10

The Houston Texans impressed me last week in their 22-25 home loss to the New England Patriots as 8-point underdogs.  They actually outgained the Patriots in the game, but missed kicks cost them the win.  Davis Mills had his best game of the season, completing 21 of 29 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns, and I expect him to build off of that performance.

The Indianapolis Colts cannot be trusted as 10-point favorites here.  They are 1-4 on the season with their lone win coming against the hapless Miami Dolphins.  And the spot is a terrible one for the Colts.  They blew a 22-3 lead on Monday Night Football to the Ravens, eventually losing 25-31 (OT). 

 It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after they did almost everything right in that game to win.  Carson Wentz finally played to his potential, but it still wasn't enough.  And now they are on a short week after an overtime game, so they won't be fully recovered in time for the Texans.  And the injuries are mounting up for the Colts with 12 players out and another 6 questionable.

This has been a very closely-contested division rivalry.  In fact, 14 of the last 15 meetings have been decided by 9 points or less.  That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Texans pertaining to this 10-point spread.  The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.  The road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Take the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns -2.5

The Arizona Cardinals are overvalued due to being the last remaining team in the NFL at 5-0.  We'll 'sell high' on them this week.  They should have lost to the Vikings and they should have lost to the 49ers based on the numbers  in the 49ers games and the missed kicks by the Vikings.  So they really should be 3-2.

Cleveland is very close to being the 5-0 team.  Their only two losses both came on the road to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Chiefs and Chargers.  They blew a 29-20 4th quarter lead to the Chiefs and a 27-13 3rd quarter lead to the Chargers.  In fact, they became the 1st team in NFL history to lose a game when scoring 40 points and having more than 500 yards of offense in that Chargers defeat.

The Browns are 2-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 15.0 points per game and outgaining them by 212 yards per game.  They are outgaining opponents by 118.8 yards per game on the season.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.4 yards per play on defense.  To compare, Arizona is only outgaining opponents by 0.6 yards per play.

The matchup is a great one for this Cleveland offense.  They average 188 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry.  Well, Arizona gives up 139 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry.  And keep in mind Kyler Murray suffered an arm injury against the 49ers last week and they managed just 17 points as the offense looked out of sync all game.  He isn't 100% coming into this one.

Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. NFC opponents.  The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  They will suffer their first loss of the season to Cleveland in this one.  Take the Browns Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers -1

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers.  They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Eagles.  This is a 'circle the wagons' game as they are looking at is as a must-win at home with their next two games coming on the road.  We'll get one of their best efforts of the season.

That should be good enough to win and cover here as a 1-point home favorite against the Minnesota Vikings.  This is a Vikings team that is just 2-3 this season with one of its wins coming over the Lions, and the other coming against a Seahawks team that is clearly not as good as everyone thought coming into the season.  And they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Lions.

The Panthers should be 4-1 instead of 3-2.  They deserved to lose at Dallas, which is proving to be one of the best teams in the NFL.  But they blew a late lead to the Eagles last week in a game they were in control throughout.  And they dominated their first three games of the season, outscoring the Jets, Saints and Texans by a combined score of 69-30.

The Panthers have the numbers of an elite team.  They are outgaining opponents by 107 yards per game on the season behind a defense that is giving up just 256 yards per game.  And the offense is improved under Sam Darnold and offensive mastermind Joe Brady calling the plays.

Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing its last game at home.  Minnesota is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  Currently as of this writing, Minnesota is a 1-point favorite, and the Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.  The Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.  Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.