Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Phillies/Mets OVER 8.5

The New York Mets have scored 32 runs in their last four games overall for an average of 8 runs per game.  They should do the heavy lifting today to help us cash this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Mets and Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of this series tonight.

Ranger Suarez is 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in three starts for the Phillies this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 22 base runners in 11 innings.  Suarez is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.652 WHIP in four career starts against the Mets.  The Phillies have a 5.79 ERA as a bullpen on the road, while the Mets have a 5.35 ERA as a bullpen at home.

The Phillies have a stacked lineup and have averaged 4.8 runs per game in their last nine games.  They are also scoring 4.9 runs per game vs. right-handed starters this season.  They should get to Kodai Senga, who is 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in his last three.

The OVER is 10-3-1 in Phillies last 14 games vs. NL East opponents.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Mets last five games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 9-4-1 in Mets last 14 games overall.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Mets last 21 games following an off day.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-130)

There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Oakland tonight that will help aid us in cashing the Braves on the Run Line.  They should tee off on JP Sears, who has already allowed 12 homers in 53 2/3 innings this season.  Then they'll be up against an Oakland bullpen that is the worst in baseball with a 6.39 ERA.  The A's allow 7.0 runs per game on the season.

The Braves are scoring 5.6 runs per game on the road and 6.1 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  The A's are only scoring 3.3 runs per game at home.  The Braves have a big advantage on the mound behind Bryce Elder, who is 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in 10 starts this season.

The A's are 1-21 as underdogs of +200 or higher this season and losing by 4.8 runs per game in this spot.  The lone win was yesterday against the Braves, but Atlanta comes back focused and highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 and should win by multiple runs tonight.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Braves/A's OVER 8.5

There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Oakland tonight that will help aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Braves and A's.  The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own tonight.

They should tee off on JP Sears, who has already allowed 12 homers in 53 2/3 innings this season.  Bryce Elder has been good for the Braves, but the A's come into this game with confidence after scoring 7 runs on Atlanta yesterday.

Atlanta is 10-2 OVER as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season.  Oakland is 8-0 OVER vs. teams that average 3.5 or more extra base hits over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 14-3 OVER vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or fewer runs per game over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 24-9-2 in Braves last 35 interleague games.  The OVER is 35-13-3 in Braves last 51 when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-115)

The Tampa Bay Rays will bounce back from a 1-0 loss to the Cubs in Game 1 of this series with a blowout victory in Game 2 due to their advantage on the mound and at the plate.  The Rays rank 2nd in baseball with a .270 average and 2nd in baseball at 6.07 runs per game.  They rank 3rd in allowing just 3.91 runs per game and are 2nd in run differential (+119) this season.

Ace Shane McClanahan is 8-0 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Kyle Hendricks, who is far past his prime and coming back from injury.  He gave up 5 runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-1 loss to the Mets in his first and only start this season.  He'll get rocked by the Rays tonight as well.

The Rays are 27-4 as favorites of -150 or more this season and winning by 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  The Rays are 14-1 in McClanahan's last 15 May starts and winning by 3.4 runs per game.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Guardians/Orioles UNDER 9

The Guardians have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 23 of their last 26 games overall.  They are hitting .226 and scoring 3.5 runs per game this season.  The UNDER is 28-7-2 in Guardians last 37 games overall, including 8-0 in their last eight games. 

The Baltimore Orioles have gone cold at the plate scoring 3 runs or fewer in five consecutive games with the UNDER going 4-1 in those five games.  These are two of the best bullpens in baseball with the Guardians having a 3.09 ERA and the Orioles having a 3.11 ERA on the season.  There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing in from right at Camden Yards tonight that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 9 ticket.

Cal Quantrill has been at his best on the road this season at 1-0 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in five stars.  Kyle Gibson has been at his best at home at 2-2 with a 3.04 ERA in four starts.  Gibson has been dominant in his last two starts despite facing the Yankees and Blue Jays, allowing one earned run in 14 innings.

Baltimore is 20-4 UNDER in its last 24 games after scoring 4 runs or fewer in four consecutive games.  The UNDER is 40-17-3 in Guardians last 60 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-3-2 in Orioles last 15 home gams.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in the last 51 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -122

The New York Mets have scored 32 runs in their last four games overall for an average of 8 runs per game.  They have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Philadelphia Phillies and should be bigger favorites as a result.

Ranger Suarez is 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in three starts for the Phillies this season, allowing 12 earned runs and 22 base runners in 11 innings.  Suarez is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.652 WHIP in four career starts against the Mets.  The Phillies have a 5.79 ERA as a bullpen on the road.

Kodai Senga has done his best work at home this season for the Mets.  He is 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in four home starts, allowing only 4 earned runs and one homer in 23 innings.  The Mets are 5-0 in their last five home games.  New York is 6-1 in its last seven home meetings with Philadelphia.  Bet the Mets Tuesday.

20* Rays/Cubs Interleague No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -129

The Tampa Bay Rays haven't lost three consecutive games all season.  They are 5-0 in their five games following two consecutive losses this season, so they have yet to be swept.  They will be highly motivated to keep that streak alive and avoid the sweep today against the Chicago Cubs.

I'll gladly side with Zach Eflin, who is 7-1 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in nine starts this season for the Rays.  The Cubs are hitting .236 and scoring 3.9 runs per game vs. right-handed starters this season.

I'll gladly fade southpaw Justin Steele, who has allowed 5 earned runs in two of his last three starts coming in.  The Rays are hitting .300 and scoring 6.7 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.

The Rays are 14-3 in their last 17 games after scoring 2 runs or fewer in two consecutive games.  Tampa Bay is 20-7 in its last 27 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Cubs are 0-5 in their last five Game 3's.  Chicago is 2-8 in its last 10 games vs. a starting pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-140)

The Oakland A's are 12-45 this season and getting outscored by 3.4 runs per game.  It's no surprise that they haven't won three games in a row all season, thus they haven't swept anyone.  After pulling off the upset in each of the first two games in this series with Atlanta, they are going to get blown out in Game 3.

The Braves will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep.  I'll gladly back Atlanta's Jared Shuster, who is 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA and 0.780 WHIP in his last three starts coming in despite facing the Rangers, Phillies and Mariners.

I'll gladly fade James Kaprielian, who is 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.780 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has already allowed 26 earned runs, 6 homers and 19 walks in 30 1/3 innings.  He is an absolutely gas can and arguably Oakland's worst starter, which is saying something.

Oakland is 1-22 in day games this season and losing by 4.5 runs per game.  Atlanta is 8-3 in its last 11 games after losing the first two games of a series.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.